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October 9th, 2009
July 14th, 2009
03:34 pm - WSOP Main event trip report
So, the WSOP Main event. This is my third year in the main event, and fifth year at the WSOP, which has seen the preceding four years have me cash-less in the tournaments I've played. I spent a good deal of time thinking about the game leading up to this event, specifically how to adjust to the much much deeper structure (we started with 30,000 chips, and blinds of 50-100).
In reading the online updates, and knowing how the Series can get, I expected to see a lot of fast play in the early going, and I was planning to be quite patient. My starting table was all unknowns until Justin Bonomo (the infamous multiaccounter ZeeJustin from online) showed up. Our table had one horribly over aggressive player who was playing every hand and bluffing most of them, while the rest seemed pretty tight.
In level 1, I caught the bluffer with my KK early and got myself up to around 50K, and beat ZeeJustin in a pot where I raised with AK, he called with AQ, flop xxx, ch ch, turn A, I check he bets I call, river X I check he bets I call. I basically stayed around there for a while, until ZeeJustin (for all intents) busted the bluffing maniac right before the dinner break.
Post day 1 dinner break didn't go very well for a long time, and I was down to around my starting stack again, when I raised with 77 and was called by one guy. Flop came down an acceptable 775. I bet and he called. Turn was a 4, I checked, he bet and I called. River was a 6, I checked, he bet, I raised, and he folded. The rest of the play for the day was uneventful and I ended day 1 at 51,275, with average stacks around 45,000.
Day 2 started off great, with no names at my table, and most people playing pretty tight. This was unfortunate in one spot where I raised in MP to 1500 with 88, and was reraised to 5000. I called and flopped 866. I checked, he bet 6000, and I pushed in for his last 24K. He stood up, went through the whole "this is my tournament life" song and dance, and finally folded QQ face up.
I ran myself up to 70K pretty quickly, then ran myself right back down to 35K when I made a good read but couldn't win the coin flip; I raised to 3600 in late with KTo, and the BB who had been playing pretty tight but shortstacked, pushed all in for 20K. I gave it some thought and decided he didn't have a monster and called to see his 33. Unfortunately, 33 ended up being the winner.
Shortly after, I was actually all in with much the worst of it. Some big stack raised from the middle and I called on the button with 65s. The flop came down a theoretically awesome 552, and after a few raises, we ended up all in, and I was licking my chops about my obvious double up against his overpair until he flipped over A5s! The turn paired the 2 and I managed to chop and stay alive.
I sort of hovered around there for most of the rest of the day and was down to about 22K when I was moved to a new table. I opened with AQ for 2200 with blinds at 400-800, and a big stack raised enough that I was going to be all in if I elected to play. I didn't see a huge option here and went for it all. To my surprise, the big stack was just making a move with K4o and I held to double to the mid 40s. Shortly after, I raised with AJ, and a short stack pushed in for about 15K from the BB. I called and sucked out on his JJ with a flop of AAx, leaving him without even his one outer to sweat. Thus, I ended day 2 with 57,100, with average about 95,000.
Day 3 started like both other days, with a mini rush from me (seems like most people didn't really wake up that sharp and I was able to steal some pots early). Quickly up to 70K, but then back down to about 50K through various loose calls and overaggressive moves. Then I finally got a double up; some french pro named Thomas Fougeron open raises in early, one caller, and I call on the button with 7s5s. Flop is AQ9 with two spades. He bets half pot and I call. Turn is a little spade, making my flush; he checks and I bet 3/4 pot and he calls. River is a K and he instantly bets all in. I have only 25K left and the pot is 150K+ so I figure if I'm out flushed, I'm outflushed. I call and he has JTo for the straight and goes on some tilty french rant as he pays me off. So, finally, I have a decent stack!
I immediately start donking away chips and am quickly down to like 130K when another big hand comes up. EP raises, one caller, and I call in the cutoff with Qd9d. Button (super tighty) calls, one blind calls. Flop is an intriguing Td8s6s, giving me a double gutter. Blind bets out, original raiser folds, I call, tighty on the button calls. Turn is a 3d giving me a flush draw with my double gutter. Now blind checks and I bet it up pretty hefty; like 25000 if I remember correctly. Tighty on the button surprises me by calling, and blind folds. River is absolutely perfect, the Jh, giving me the nuts. I bet 40,000 and tighty on the button starts moaning and groaning about how he should have just moved in on the flop and finally folds AsTs face up; yeah, I'd say moving in on the flop was good! So, now I'm up around 200K or whatever.
Tighty busts and is replaced by another tighty. A little while later, I raise with KTo in the cutoff and this tighty pushes on me for like 40K more. Feeling a little gambly I call and face his 88, which again I cannot defeat. My table broke shortly after and I was moved to a table with Dennis Phillips. With about 190K, and 15 minutes left in the day, its folded to my SB. I look at the BB who has 48K, and figure he's going to fold just about anything, so I move in with 98o. He instacalls with AQ and we both whiff the board entirely. End day 3 with 123,000, with average at about 245,000.
At this point, we are down to 789 players, with money at 648. I'm in about 550th place so I could probably fold into it if I really desired, but I decided to just keep playing normally and see what happened. I checked my table draw and it was obvious we were going to break very quickly (we were table 89 of 89) so not much happened at my first table. I then got moved to a new table where things seemed quite friendly. On my second orbit, I am in the BB with T7o, and its folded to the SB who has about 250K and limps. I check, and see a flop of J98. After some raises, we get all in and he has J9 for two pair. He fails to suck out and now I'm pretty much going to cash unless a negative disaster happens.
Shortly we are in hand for hand, which takes nearly two hours to bust five players. All short stacks are grimly hanging on, and any all in requires ESPN's presence and direction of the dealing of the hand. I liked two announced hands during the hand for hand; shorty is all in with AA vs KJ, board goes KJ4-2-2, and he stands on a chair and screams "IM STILL IN IT" to all of us, and another shorty all in with AA vs AJ, which led the whole room to start chanting "Jack! Jack! Jack!". Anyways, finally somehow the bubble bursts with some dude all in for like his 600 ante or whatever, and I'm $21,000 richer!
The payout structure was incredibly flat (to give an example, 648th was worth $21,365, while 227th was wroth $32,963 - 400+ spots for another 10K) so I knew it was going to be fast and furious after the break. My plan was to pick up some aces or kings and double up a few times. Instead, I immediately spewed off 60K on a ridiculous move against some Scandanavian (he opens in MP, someone calls, I call in the BB with 65o, flop 222. I check he bets 17,000, I raise to 42,000, he calls. Turn J, I give up and check, he touches one of his chips and I fold). This took me back down to the low 100s. Meanwhile, all you are hearing all over the room is "all in and call" and our table is right by the prize window, and there's literally a 10 person lineup there at all times.
We reach the break and I have something like 103,000, with average pushing 450K, and coming back to blinds of 3000-6000, ante 1000. Still plenty of play but getting short undoubtedly. I'm also feeling the effects of 30 hours of live poker in 4 days, which exceeds my last one year of live poker played. Thomas and Melina tell me to stop being a little bitch and get in and fight, so back I go.
Shortly after restart, I open on the button with KTo and am called by the BB. The flop is AKK, and after some raises, I'm all in, once again surprised to be facing his KJ. I request a queen for a chop, and I hit exactly that card on the river. While disappointed, he does concede that I deserve it because I was not "greedy - you only asked for a queen, and not a ten".
I then immediately get moved to a new table, with two of the top ten leaders. I manage a double up fairly early when a MP raises to 17000 and I push for 95000 with 88. He doesn't install call so I know I have a chance at least; he finally makes the call with QT and my eights hold up for the win, getting me back to 200K.
Finally, my bustout hand of the tourney. I am in the BB of 6K and UTG (who has 2.2M) raises to 15K. Another monster stack (1.4M) cold calls. I have seen UTG splashing around in a lot of pots already, and the other big stack trying to take some flops with him, so I'm not seeing either of them as monstrously strong here. I look at Tc7c, and think, ok, 18K in the pot preflop, plus their 30K, makes it 48K that I have to call 9K for. I figure its a fairly obvious call and call. The flop is AK4 with two clubs. I check, unsure how I want to play this, and the chip leader immediately bets 27,000. The other big stack elects to slowly call, and I now see the pot as 111K, and I have 174,000 in my stack, exactly a perfect size to jam with (since I will put in the 27K to call, and raise 147K more, basically one full pot size bet). I further think that there is no really bad result unless one of them has a set. Bigger clubs are going to have a really tough time calling, and even top pair will have to think about it. To be honest, I didn't even think either of them had top pair! In any event, if they both fold, I get a risk free 50% addition to my stack up to 300K, and if one calls, I will have to hit my flush which I will do more than 1/3 times, after which I'd have 450K and be average stacked and in position to maybe do a little something.
As it stood, UTG raiser instantly folded to the other big stack's laugh and comment "you evil man", and he started thinking about whether or not to call me. He asked me what I had, and I said 147,000. He gave it a fair bit of thought, seemingly leaning towards folding, but then visibly realized there were two clubs on board and starting figuring I might have a flush draw. Finally he elected to call with his AdTd, and I couldn't hit the flush, and was eliminated in 430th place for $27,469.
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April 21st, 2007
07:24 pm
Today, I took part in an exhibition match against the world's top rated chess player, Viswanathan Anand, having paid a pretty penny on eBay as a charitable donation in exchange for the privilege
Sadly, I missed my chance to score, making the wrong choice between two attacking lines.
[Event "Charity Simul"]
[Site "Internet Chess Club"]
[Date "2007.04.21"]
[White "Anand"]
[Black "Me"]
[Result "1-0"]
1. Nf3 c5 2. e4 d6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 g6 6. Be3 Bg7 7. f3 Nc6 8. Qd2 O-O 9. O-O-O d5 10. exd5 Nxd5 11. Nxc6 bxc6 12. Bd4 Nxc3 13. Qxc3 Bh6+ 14. Be3 Bxe3+ 15. Qxe3 Qb6 16. Qxe7 Be6 17. Qa3 Rfd8 18. Ba6 c5 19. Qa4
This was the first move out of theory for me. I was well aware of an old Kasparov-Topalov game that had proceeded 19.Be2. Although I knew Kasparov won that game, the maneuver Ba6-e2 seemed utterly ridiculous to me and I was willing to face it. The move played was new on me (and a database search turns up nothing), but I didn't really see the point of it. As it loosens the defense of the queenside, I decided to go straight for the jugular.
19...Rdb8 20. b3 Qc7 21. Rd2 Rb4 22. Qa3 Rab8 23. c4 Qe5 24. Qb2 Qe3 25. Rd1
Here is where I had to make my choice. I was seriously considering 25...Rxb3 26. axb3 Rxb3, and debating whether he would play:
1) 27. Qxb3 Qxb3 - I wasn't sure what his next move would be here. Obviously he's immediately threatened with Qa3+, and I'm not sure I see any very good defense to it. Fritz considers 28.Rb2 Qc3+ 29.Kb1 Bf5+ 30. Ka1 to be white's best, where I have at minimum a perpetual with Qa3-c3-a3-c3, etc, but Fritz thinks I should play for more, based I imagine on the fact that white simply has no good moves. I analyzed this variation very poorly during the game, and likely would have gone for 25..Rxb3 if I'd realized how tied up white is in this spot.
2) 27.Qa2 - a move I didn't really expect him to play, thinking 27...Ra3 would give me a very good position. This is probably ok, but Fritz puts 27...Bf5 as even stronger, taking control of the c2 square and allowing black to retake the long diagonal with Qc3+ next, as well as leaving the haunting threat of Rb1+ at some future moment.
Fritze evaluates both of these positions as solidly in my favor. However, having misevaluated most of these positions quite poorly, I actually thought I saw something even better..
25...R4b6 26.Kb1 Qg5 27.f4 Qe7 28.Bb5 a6 29.Bd7 Bxc4
This was approximately what I had looked at, thinking he would be very tied up, as I threaten sacrifices on b3, or simply to retreat my bishop and play c4, opening him up further. His move as played came as a big surprise.
30.Qe5 Bxb3
At this point I thought I was actually getting somewhere and that I'd have him in trouble - and really, how often do you get to offer the world #1 a queen sacrifice? The main point, obviously, is 31.Qxe7 Bxd1+ 32.Kc1 Rb1# Joel Benjamin on the live audio broadcast indicated that I definitely had a lot of cheapo potential but that he thought it probably was not going to work "but it's close".
31.axb3 Rxb3+ 32. Ka1
I just about fell off my chair when he played this, as I immediately saw 32...Qxd7 33.Rxd7 Ra3# !! A moment of sober reflection and I noticed 32..Qxd7 33.Qxb8+! and I lose. Lord, how I was wishing I could make my c5 pawn evaporate into thin air at this point. The rest of the game is a fairly efficient consolidation and mopping up.
32...Qf8 33. Ba4 Ra3+ 34. Ra2 c4 35. Qd6 Qg7+ 36. Qd4 Qxd4+ 37. Rxd4 Re3 38. Rd1 h5 39. f5 gxf5 40. Bc6 Rb6 41. Bf3 h4 42. h3 Reb3 43. Rc1 c3 44. Ra5 Rd6 45. Ka2 Rb2+ 46. Ka3 Rdd2 47. Rxf5 Ra2+ 48. Kb3 a5 49. Kxc3 a4 50. Ra5 a3 51. Kc4 Rd8 52. Kb3 Rb2+ 53. Kxa3 Rdb8 54. Rc8+ {Black resigns} 1-0
Going into the game, I was hoping I didn't get blown out and that I'd at least make him sweat a bit. I think I probably did (a little bit), so I'm kinda happy, but I really wish I'd played the Rxb3 line :)
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January 12th, 2007
08:42 pm
As most family and close friends know, I recently suffered a bit of a health scare.
Things began on Friday December 29, when I got to work and felt utterly wiped out. I got through the basics of what I needed to do for the day, then packed it in and went home. I spent Friday and Saturday on the couch, and was a little more lively on Sunday. However, I couldn't stay up until midnight - I was still very fatigued, and part of my forehead was very tender; I can only really describe it as feeling like it was bruised. I assumed it was just from spending too much time lying down, and went to bed.
( Read more about my health scare )
So, that was my new year's health scare. Happy new year.
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November 9th, 2006
07:32 pm - And at last something new...Week 10
Game 1: Denver -9 vs Oakland - I think this one is kinda silly. Oakland cannot score against even mediocre defense (see MNF). Denver has been putting up 30pts per game their last couple. Denver's coach also has a long standing grudge against the Raiders as they fired him, unjustly in his opinion, years ago. He can and will run up the score on them.
Game 2: Indianapolis -12 vs Buffalo - I think Indy may just romp through Buffalo, a team with nothing positive going for it, and who ruined several fantasy teams of mine by allowing their star RB to have his ribs broken. Only exception is if the weather in Buffalo goes to hell.
Game 3: Batltimore -7 vs Tennessee - Tennessee occassionally shows flashes, but Baltimore has a fast and tricky defense, the kind that eats young QBs like Vince Young alive.
Game 4: *Sanchez of the week!* New Orleans +5 vs Pittsburgh. Seriously, for gods sake. How much more evidence do the books need that Pittsburgh is just a bad team? Their D can't stop anything but the run, and New Orleans is all about the pass. New Orleans is going to win this game outright (I have this as New Orleans as a 1 point favorite) and the New Orleans straight up win at +185 is the "Sanchez of the week". Let's get those upper lips dirty.
Game 5: Jacksonville -10.5 vs Houston. Carr was benched last week and I think will fall apart mentally. Jax seems to be rallying with their new QB and are looking good.
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07:29 pm - Week 9 for posterity
1) Denver +3 vs Pittsburgh - I swear this must be the first time in history a team that is 5-2 is an underdog to a team that is 2-5. But then, the 2-5 team did look good in losing to Oakland last week. I have Denver as an 8 point favorite.
---> It turned out I was a genius. Duh!
2) Indianapolis +3 vs New England - I'm not sure why people continue to underestimate Indianapolis. They only beat Denver last week on the road as well as Jacksonville and the Giants this year. New England counters with wins over Buffalo, the Jets, Buffalo, Miami...and a solid loss to Denver. I have Indy as a 3 point favorite. This is the first time the #1 and #2 teams in my rankings have ever met.
---> Love them Colts!
3) Atlanta -5 vs Detroit - Detroit is bad. Atlanta is reasonably good. I have Atlanta as a 10 point favorite. The home field is minimal as Atlanta is built to play in Domes like their home, and Detroit plays in a dome.
---> I dunno what the heck happened here. I think Detroit may be getting Martz's system...
4) Minnesota -5.5 vs San Francisco - the same San Francisco who was down 24-0 after one quarter is allegedly going to stay within 2 field goals of Minnesota? I think not.
---> Minnesota really disappointed me in this game. They looked awful.
5) Cleveland +12 vs San Diego - San Diego remains a choke team - all the talent but they somehow don't quite live up to it. Cleveland finally got their running game on track last week, and this week (for real) San Diego loses their #1 defensive player.
---> Hooray for the garbage time cover! And this time, Merriman really didn't play!
Week: 3-2
YTD: 22-21-2
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07:27 pm - NFL week 8 just for posterity
I kinda slacked off posting my picks to LJ, but I do continue to make them each week...for posterity's sake here is how I've been doing.
Game 1: Jacksonville +6.5 vs Philadelphia - uh no. Philly has shown a wonderful tendency to choke away games, and to get scored on a lot. I actually have Jacksonville as a solid favorite in this game. Jax has been a little up and down this year, beating ok Dallas and Pittsburgh and nearly beating Indy to start, but losing to Washington and Houston. Philly has powered to a 4-3 record on the strength of wins over the terrible three: Houston, San Fran, Green Bay along with a win over Dallas. They have lost to the Giants, New Orleans, and Tampa. When they face a good team, they lose.
--> I called this one perfect!
Game 2: Seattle +6 vs Kansas City - the books are way way overreacting to the loss of Hasselbeck. Their backup has been in the system for years, and should be able to come in and give a decent performance. Alexander also may be back. Its hard to base much of their past performance due to injuries. KC is 3-3, but two wins have come against San Fran and Arizona, while they are a measly 1-3 against decent teams (Cincy, Denver, Pitt, San Diego).
--> Sweet lord did this game hurt to watch. I had no idea that 1) KC would remember to hand the ball off to LJ 40 times and that 2) Seattle was utterly incapable of stopping that plan.
Game 3: Baltimore +2.5 vs New Orleans - New Orleans owes me some fucking money, and they are going to start paying it back right now by getting whomped by Baltimore. Baltimore is 4-2, but is 2-2 vs good teams (Tampa, San Diego, Denver, Carolina). New Orleans is somehow 3-1 against good teams but this is the week it all comes crashing down. No matter what they do, they'll always be the "ain'ts".
--> My worst analysis of the week, but it came through like gold baby!
Game 4: NYJ +2 vs Cleveland - how the hell can Cleveland be a favorite over anyone? NYJ are the better team by a long ways. Cleveland is 1-5 this year, having beaten only Oakland. The Jets are 4-3, albeit with a weakish schedule (wins over Tenn, Buff, Miami, Detroit to compare with losses vs New England, Indy, and Jax). Right now, Cleveland has proved they suck. NYJ have at least a chance that they are good.
--> The Jets proved they suck. NYJ can't stop the rush, which is great for a somewhat green QB.
Game 5: St Louis +9 vs San Diego - San Diego is another choke team and have just had their best defensive player suspended. San Diego has managed to beat Oakland, Tennessee, San Fran this year (and Pittsburgh), while losing to Baltimore and KC. I think this game is essentially a pick'em, so 9 points is like stealing.
--> Merriman played and had 5 tackles and 3 sacks. Whoops!
Week record: 2-3
YTD 19-19-2
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October 23rd, 2006
10:25 pm
> Game 1: Giants +3 vs Dallas - bla ha ha. I have Giants as a nine point favorite.
Very very easy win. WIN
> Game 2: Denver -4.5 vs Cleveland - PLEASE. PLEASE! The Brownies have nothin. They are from Cleveland for god's sake.
Denver really needs to get their offense going. Still easily enough to whomp Cleveland and cover though. WIN.
> Game 3: Jacksonville -9.5 vs Houston - Houston sucks and I contend they will always suck.
WTf. I hate Houston. LOSS.
> Game 4: New England -5 vs Buffalo. New England gonna roll over these Buffafools.
Another no sweat win. WIN.
> Game 5: Carolina +3 vs Cincinnati. Another one where I have the underdog as the favorite to win outright.
An uneventful push; Carolina had the chance to win this game so not bad. PUSH.
> Minnesota +6.5 vs Seattle is the only other strong line that I would bet.
Bonus pick would also have been a win!
Much better week, 3-1-1, YTD 17-16-2.
Edited to correct typo in my favor :p
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October 19th, 2006
01:45 pm
Game 1: Giants +3 vs Dallas - bla ha ha. I have Giants as a nine point favorite.
Game 2: Denver -4.5 vs Cleveland - PLEASE. PLEASE! The Brownies have nothin. They are from Cleveland for god's sake.
Game 3: Jacksonville -9.5 vs Houston - Houston sucks and I contend they will always suck.
Game 4: New England -5 vs Buffalo. New England gonna roll over these Buffafools.
Game 5: Carolina +3 vs Cincinnati. Another one where I have the underdog as the favorite to win outright.
Minnesota +6.5 vs Seattle is the only other strong line that I would bet.
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October 17th, 2006
02:55 am - Week 6 in review
> 1) NYG +3 vs Atlanta - I think the Giants win outright.
Hooray for me! If I was a betting man, it's possible I might have won for the week because I would have bet a substantial amount on NYG straight up to win. WIN.
> 2) Houston +13 vs Dallas - Me, picking Houston? Can't be! Dallas is on the verge of a team implosion (who didn't see THAT coming).
This one was tied at the half and I thought I was gold. No idea what happened in the 2nd half! LOSS.
> 3) Denver -14.5 vs Oakland - I foresee multiple Denver RBs getting 100yds rushing and we get our first look at Cutler.
I may have to re-evaluated Denver; it's odd that when Schottenheimer plays it conservative and protects a lead, its "Martyball" and choking. When Denver gets ahead by 7 and sits on it, its "winning football". What a horribly dull game. LOSS.
> 4) Buffalo -1 vs Detroit - Buffalo I think is surprisingly good, and Detroit is bad, and under heavy injury review.
I still don't get this one. Detroit had a couple of players have their career days and they still only won by 3. I still like this bet, but..LOSS.
> 5) Washington -10 vs Tennessee - They won't find the water so warm against Washington, and I suspect will have trouble generating 100 yards of offense in the game.
Goddamn Washington and their good one week, bad next week tendency. There's some real big problems there. LOSS
Terrible week, 1-4. YTD 14-15-1
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October 12th, 2006
03:55 am - NFL week 6
First team named is my pick.
1) NYG +3 vs Atlanta - I think the Giants may be somewhat underrated around the league right now. Its clear they are struggling a bit but they still have elite talent. Vick sucks. I think the Giants win outright.
2) Houston +13 vs Dallas - Me, picking Houston? Can't be! Dallas is on the verge of a team implosion (who didn't see THAT coming). The matchup is ok and Houston usually plays well against Dallas.
3) Denver -14.5 vs Oakland - Oakland is already mailing it in. I foresee multiple Denver RBs getting 100yds rushing and we get our first look at Cutler.
4) Buffalo -1 vs Detroit - This was the "WTF" line from my gut review. Buffalo I think is surprisingly good, and Detroit is bad, and under heavy injury review. My system spit out a line of -7 but I think it should even be higher.
5) Washington -10 vs Tennessee - Tennessee, last week's surprising stand up against Indy notwithstanding, is a bad bad football team. Indy is very vulnerable to the rush, and that's all Tennessee can do. They won't find the water so warm against Washington, and I suspect will have trouble generating 100 yards of offense in the game.
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October 9th, 2006
07:04 pm
> 1) Pittsburgh +3.5 San Diego - Pitt has had an extra week to get Rothlingsberger right, and I think its about time Rivers is shown to be the rookie he essentially is.
So wrong. Whatever's wrong with Rothlingsberger, its gonna take more than a week to fix. Rivers looked excellent.
> 2) Tampa -6.5 New Orleans - I still don't believe in New Orleans. Tampa is another team coming off the bye and I think Gruden spent the bye week saying to himself "running game. running game. running game." which was the cornerstone of their success last year.
A win - New Orleans lucked out a win here on a miracle punt return. Tampa had 187 yards rushing.
> 3) Washington +4.5 NY Giants - The Redskins, after a horrible week 2 performance, scored an impressive week 4 win over Super Bowl contender Jacksonville. I predict the Giants lose again and their season spirals down the toilet.
Washington is insane. One week they look awesome, the next week horrible. This was a horrible week. Loss.
> 4) Vikings -6.5 Detroit - They finally get to play a bottom feeder and I think they bust out to romp to a sizable win.
Minnesota is gonna screw up my rankings all the time with wins like this. They scratch and claw to a horrible looking win, and cover thanks to a miracle last second INT return for TD. A win is a win I guess..
> 5) Indy -18 Tennessee - Of course, Indy may have covered by the end of the first quarter.
One of the most shocking results all year for me. Loss.
Another pretty bad week overall, 2-3 and one of the wins was just pure luckiness.
Year to date: 13-11-1
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October 6th, 2006
11:49 am - NFL week 5
1) Pittsburgh +3.5 San Diego - difficult one to pick. Pittsburgh is coming off a kinda ugly looking loss, but at the same time, San Diego's offense was a bit exposed by Baltimore last week. I'm thinking that after the bye, Pitt has had an extra week to get Rothlingsberger right, and I think its about time Rivers is shown to be the rookie he essentially is. I also think Schottenheimer is losing the team as evidenced by some of the comments made by SD players after their loss to the Ravens. I actually believe Pitt will win this outright.
2) Tampa -6.5 New Orleans - I still don't believe in New Orleans. Tampa is another team coming off the bye and I think Gruden spent the bye week saying to himself "running game. running game. running game." which was the cornerstone of their success last year.
3) Washington +4.5 NY Giants - I find this line a bit shocking. The Giants are in utter turmoil right now with huge locker room strife and some real fugly losses this year. They could easily be coming into this game 0-3 but for their miracle comeback against Philly. The Redskins, after a horrible week 2 performance, scored an impressive week 4 win over Super Bowl contender Jacksonville. I predict the Giants lose again and their season spirals down the toilet.
4) Vikings -6.5 Detroit - As always, the Vikings are on this list. I think they are still being heavily underrated an as such, that they will handle Detroit easily. The Vikings are 2-2 and have played 4 pretty tough teams (the only possible exception being the Bills, who appear to be surprisingly tough this year). They finally get to play a bottom feeder and I think they bust out to romp to a sizable win.
5) Indy -18 Tennessee - damn right! Who doesn't want to lay 18 points! In reality, in my rating system which is now being run for the 20th week, this is the biggest mismatch that has ever occurred. Indy is ranked #1 in the league, Tennessee #32. The only think Peyton has trouble with is an aggressive pash rush, and Tennessee just lost one of their starting interior D-linemen. The only danger is that with Vince Young in, Tennessee is gonna play this one out the whole time and may catch up in garbage time. Of course, Indy may have covered by the end of the first quarter.
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October 3rd, 2006
06:05 am
> Game 1: Minnesota +1 vs Buffalo - I actually consider the Vikings solid favorites in this game
Bzzt! Wrong answer. Brad Johnson had an unusually bad game for him and Buffalo did just enough to win.
> Game 2: Miami -3.5 vs Houston - Miami hasn't looked all that great this year, but they're no freakin Houston.
I was right, they're no Houston, as in: they need some work to look as good as Houston. They really looked awful.
> Game 3: New England +6 vs Cincinnati - I think the Patriots come out with something to prove and win this one outright.
Woop dee doo. I go 1-4 and the only one I get right is my favorite team getting blown out.
> Game 4: Green Bay +11 vs Philadelphia - I think Favre is also pretty motivated to show he's not done like everyone is saying.
Was feeling pretty good at the half with the score 9-7 for Green Bay. Two different teams came out for the 2nd half and Green Bay gave up in the 4th Q. At one point, they were down 22 with 8 minutes left and the ball - ok, not a great situation, but a quick score and things are not hopeless. Instead, running play. Slow huddle. Running play. Slow huddle. Now there's 6 minutes left and they've advanced the ball 8 yards. Now it *is* hopeless.
> Game 5: Tennessee +9.5 vs Dallas - I will admit that I'm not super thrilled with this pick as I think Tennessee is horrible.
Bledsoe has been brutally unpredictable this year- sometimes looking terrible and sometimes awesome. Dallas running game also showed up for this one.
So 1-4 this week, ugly.
YTD: 11-8-1
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September 27th, 2006
07:00 am - NFL week 4
Just to clarify: I have a statistical system that I use to set a line before I look at the lines, and then I list the five games where the line is the most off - no exceptions or "My gut tells me...". I believe that "your gut" is one of the biggest causes of people to lose money sportsbetting. Anyways, once I set the line, I write this post, and explain some reasons why the system has spit out a reasonable number (or that I disagree with the number!). Lines are taken from mansion.com as of Sept 26.
Game 1: Minnesota +1 vs Buffalo - another line I consider semi-silly (though not as bad as the Wash-Hou line last week. Minnesota has beaten 2 extremely solid teams and was unlucky to lose last week against a true Super Bowl contender in Chicago. Buffalo has beaten the crappy Dolphins, and lost to New England and the Jets. I actually consider the Vikings solid favorites in this game
Game 2: Miami -3.5 vs Houston - geezum crow. How can these books really not see how truly horrible Houston is. As stated last week, Houston has covered a 4 point spread a total of 5 times in their last 19 games and have lost every game this year by 2 TDs or more. Miami hasn't looked all that great this year, but they're no freakin Houston.
Game 3: New England +6 vs Cincinnati - this one hurts, as I don't like NE and I do like Cincy. However, Carson is still a little wobbly and inconsistent (4 TDS last week, but 2 INT and a fumble as well), and Chad seems to be still suffering. Their D is very opportunistic against bad QBs, but against good ones, not so much. I think the Patriots come out with something to prove and win this one outright.
Game 4: Green Bay +11 vs Philadelphia - Gonna be a fun Monday night watching this one. Philly has rolled it up on some real poor teams so far, and I think people are overrating them. They've shown a real tendency to give up a lot of points late in games (17 in the 4thQ vs Giants, 14 in the 4thQ vs San Fran), and I think they may win it, but Favre will get it within a TD by the end. I think Favre is also pretty motivated to show he's not done like everyone is saying.
Game 5: Tennessee +9.5 vs Dallas - I actually made this pick before the TO induced vomiting incidents, so I'm liking it (even though I don't think TO was really meant to play a big role in this game). I'm not in love with this pick but I don't have Dallas rated all that highly - they are 1-1 this year and had their win in an excellent matchup vs Brunell in terms of their D vs what Brunell does well and Portis being out. I will admit that I'm not super thrilled with this pick as I think Tennessee is horrible.
As always, for "entertainment purposes only."
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September 25th, 2006
07:54 am - Week 3 results
>1) Washington -4 vs Houston - I think this line is absolutely ludicrous.
Absolutely right. This game was never close to being anything like a four point game.
Result: WIN
> 2) Denver +6.5 vs New England -I can see New England winning, but a touchdown seems a bit much (I've heard this line has actually even gone higher since I did my analysis so it's even better on Denver).
Well New England looked terrible. I expected to sweat this game much more than I had to.
Result: WIN
> 3) Jets +5.5 vs Buffalo - I would think this game should be more of pick'em.
This was an odd game. If you just showed the passing yards and rushing yards to someone, they'd assume Buffalo had won, or that maybe the Jets had done a big come from behind deal. Instead, the Jets won easily. Buffalo seems to be having some serious serious red zone issues.
Result: WIN
> 4) San Francisco +6 vs Philadelphia - this is the game my system churned out that I don't feel super about.
Bah. To be honest, I actually had a decent chance in this one; Philly won by 14, but on one key play, SF fumbled on the 1 and it was returned 99 yards for a TD, your basic 14 point swing. Of course, things might have happened differently after that, etc etc.
Result: LOSS
> 5) Jacksonville +7 vs Indianapolis - my system has these two teams essentially equal right now.
Well, if Jacksonville's normally reliable kicker doesn't miss two FGs in the dome, they cover here. As it stands, just a non event as the line hits right on the nose.
Result: PUSH
Week record: 3-1-1
Year to date record: 10-4-1 - I didn't publish the first two weeks picks, but you can trust me :)
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September 23rd, 2006
11:55 am - Week 3 NFL betting
(for entertainment purposes only, wink wink nudge nudge)
Before the season started, I developed a rating system on teams based on the chess ratings. It takes into account things like wins, opponent strength, home/road wins, and margin of victory. I started all teams off last year with the same rating, and ran it for all games last year to get better starting ratings this year. I use it to set a line on each game, then compare to "other sources" and see which games I think are the best bets. In week 1, I went 3-2, and in week 2, 4-1.
A quick primer: a line of "-4" means the team must win by 4. A line of +4 means the team can lose by anything up to 4 and you still win.
Here are my week 3 picks:
1) Washington -4 vs Houston - I think this line is absolutely ludicrous. Washington had a tough week 1 loss to Minnesota, then looked horrible against Dallas last week. Houston has been what Houston always is: godawful. They lost by 19 to Indy last week and the score flattered them. My system made this line more like -14.
2) Denver +6.5 vs New England - One of the things about my system is it rewards teams for winning. Denver has won a lot of games in their last 10, so their rating is quite high right now. They looked real bad in weeks 1 and 2, but New England didn't look like any hot stuff either, barely beating Buffalo and the Jets, two non playoff teams last year. I can see New England winning, but a touchdown seems a bit much (I've heard this line has actually even gone higher since I did my analysis so it's even better on Denver).
3) Jets +5.5 vs Buffalo - Buffalo's Defense has looked really good so far, but in the end, they lost game 1 and beat a very struggling Miami team in game 2. The Jets seem rejuvenated now that Pennington is back and their offense has gone pass happy. Oddly, both teams have lost to New England, and I think both gave New England a similar fight. I would think this game should be more of pick'em.
4) San Francisco +6 vs Philadelphia - this is the game my system churned out that I don't feel super about. Philly's rating is heavily depressed by their bad results at the end of last year and their implosion vs the Giants last week, while San Fran has jumped their rating with a win last week. I ended up leaving it in after hearing about all the injuries on the Philly defense.
5) Jacksonville +7 vs Indianapolis - my system has these two teams essentially equal right now. Both are 2-0, but Indy struggled to beat the Giants and then had a bye against Houston. Jacksonville has beaten two Super Bowl calibre teams in Dallas and Pittsburgh - they've proven to me that they are one of the top teams in the league, and shouldn't be 7 point underdogs to anyone.
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June 8th, 2006
11:06 pm
I went to the casino last night to play the $50 rebuy and avoid the misery of having to listen to the oilers get walloped with Chumpy Magoo in net. I also felt that last year when I played the wsop, I hadn't had enough live play practice and I felt very out of sorts at the table, so I want to rectify that a bit this year.
( Rambling tourney report )
Still a nice win. It's actually a very nice casino (only craps table in Costa Rica, and you bet I rolled some bones at minimal limits), and a decent little poker room. But now, after not having played a longish session (the tourney ran from 845pm until about 330am) in a while live, I have a brutal gambling hangover.
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May 24th, 2006
11:51 am - Hockey playoffs
As a Canadian far from home, I miss hockey a lot right now. As an Edmontonian far from home, I'm DYING. This was a real choke-up moment last night:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meLpuF9UMvk
Current Mood: ![[mood icon]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/mood/classic/sad.gif) melancholy
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April 6th, 2006
11:51 am
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